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Monday 21 June 2021
4:50pm
Wobbly, short-period 1-3ft SSE windswell and a long-period but lully background ESE groundswell. Fair-poor form at most spots. Fair form at spots in NJ with good south wind protection. Look for long-period groundswell pulse from Tropical Storm Claudette later today.
FULL MOON and RADICAL TIDES
Full moon on Thursday will create radical tide swings,
which will limit surfability at most spots.
Expect coastal flooding during the high tides.
Regional Surf Report
Knee to thigh high+ combo swell with sideshore (S) wind and poor form at most spots. Some of the jetties will see better form but avoid dead high or low tide.
Atlantic and Cape May County
Thigh to waist high combo swell with sideshore/onshore (S) wind. Poor form for most spots. Find a spot with decent S wind protection.
Coaching Schedule Click here for details
Queens-Nassau County
Thigh to waist high+ combo swell with onshore (S) wind. Poor form.
Suffolk County
Waist to belly high+ combo swell with onshore (S) wind. Poor form.
Coaching Schedule Click here for details
Later Today S wind increases to 15-20mph and form at most spots will continue to deteriorate. A few east facing jetties in NJ will have some protection from the S wind should have the best form but avoid the dead high or low tides. Front-runner ESE groundswell from Tropical Storm Claudette fills in later this arvo or evening.
WEATHER ADVISORY Popup thunderstorms likely tonight
FORECAST UPDATE SURF ALERT
Combo swell from multiple (and surprising) sources peaks on Tuesday, lingers on Wednesday and Thursday. Definitely days worth targeting but watch the wind.
Check out the Forecast Alert and 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.
Coaching Schedule Click here for details
LONG RANGE FORECAST Surf Alert
More swell next weekend but watching the wind forecast.
Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.
TROPICAL UPDATE It's ON!
Tropical Depression Claudette is entering our swell window and another massive tropical wave has entered the Atlantic Basin. It's ON!
Check out the Tropical Update below for details.
Water Temp Update Local water temps have increased to 67 to 68 degrees F.
A springsuit is recommended but keep your fullsuit handy in the event of upwelling.
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Combo swell from multiple sources peaks on Tuesday then lingers through the end of the week
FORECAST OVERVIEW
RIGHT NOW Surf Alert, but...
Sustained S wind has maintained the short-period 2-3ft SSE windswell from a stalled frontal system over New England (and the backspin of the Bermuda High).
FORECAST
Sustained S wind will make a mess of the surf at the exposed spots but will also help maintain the S windswell today and tonight. This will mix with frontrunner groundswell from the recently reformed Tropical Storm Claudette that has moved into the Western Atlantic, just off the North Carolina Coast.
There's also a massive cold front that is stretched from Southeast Canada/Maine, along the Appalachians and into Texas. This system is forecast to strengthen as it moves east and over the East Coast on Tuesday.
TUESDAY SURF ALERT*
Get ready...
1. Sustained 2-3ft S windswell from an approaching cold front (and backspin from the Bermuda High). This will be the filler between larger sets.
2. ESE groundswell from Tropical Storm Claudette, which will quickly swing through our swell window. This groundswell will build into the 3-4ft+ range before dawn and linger for the rest of the day.
3. *These two swells will mix with the frontrunners of an ultra-rare, long-period Southern Hemisphere groundswell from a storm in the South Atlantic. This swell will have traveled over 5,000 nautical miles and should be a longer-duration swell event but size will be difficult to determine. This will most likely be a background swell that will help feed the primary swells.
FORECAST Light WSW/SW wind at dawn turns NW then N and increases as a large cold front crosses the region by midmorning. This system also brings rain and increases the chance for thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY SURF ALERT
Claudette weakens into a post-tropical depression and gets bumped into the North Atlantic by a strengthening cold front. This system will stall just offshore and because of the proximity to the coast the winds will remain northerly. Lingering ESE groundswell/SSE windswell drops into the 2-3ft range, with the occasional larger set.
Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details.
LONG RANGE FORECAST
LATE WEEK Surf Alert
THURSDAY High pressure builds over the East Coast so winds will be light and variable at dawn. 2-3ft ESE and SSE combo swell leftovers. Winds turn onshore and increase by mid to late morning. ESE and SSE windswell maintains.
THURSDAY Small ESE and SSE windswell lingers. Onshore wind.
Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.
THE X FACTOR
It's summer so we can expect the typical midday onshore wind
TROPICAL UPDATE
Tropical Storm Claudette is the second named storm of the 2021 Hurricane Season
and the Atlantic Basin is exploding with activity.
Check out the TROPICAL UPDATE below for details.
Combo swell from multiple sources peaks on Tuesday and lingers through the rest of the week
MONDAY Surf Alert*
2-3ft Weak, wobbly SSE windswell mixes with a new, inconsistent ESE groundswell from Tropical Storm Claudette later today. Swell bumps up a foot or so.
*Note Sustained moderate to strong S wind through the end of the day. Most spots will see deteriorating conditions (with the exception of a few east facing jetties in NJ) but only on the lower tide. Thunderstorms likely by late arvo or early evening. Extreme tides will further limit surfability. Swell builds overnight.
NJ Knee to waist high+ SSE/ESE combo swell with sideshore (S) wind. Most spots are seeing poor form with the exception of the east facing jetties on the lower tides.
NY Thigh to waist high+ SSE/ESE combo swell with onshore (S) wind. Poor form.
Coaching Schedule Click here for details
TUESDAY SURF ALERT*
2-5ft+ SSE windswell, mid-period ESE groundswell and rare, long-period ESE Southern Hemisphere groundswell fills in. Bigger at south facing spots in the region.
*Note SW/WSW wind at dawn, turns NW then N by midmorning. Best on Long Island, NY and south facing spots in Southern NJ. Expect rain and potential thunderstorms after the wind switch. Radical tide swings will make timing your sessions tricky.
NJ Waist to shoulder high+ SSE/ESE combo swell with WSW wind at dawn. Best further north but wind turns NW then N by midmorning. Will be best at south facing spots in the southern end of the state. Definitely a day to target but watch the tides.
NY Waist to head high SSE/ESE combo swell with onshore/sideshore (WSW) at dawn but wind swings offshore by mid morning and conditions clean up quickly. Definitely a day to target but watch the tides.
Coaching Schedule Click here for details
WEDNESDAY SURF ALERT*
ESE/SSE combo swell drops into the 2-4ft range. N or NW wind early.
*NOTE Wind turns light and variable just after noon then turns S and increases by mid to late arvo and form deteriorates at exposed spots. Radical tides so timing your sessions correctly is essential.
NJ Waist to belly high+ ESE/SE combo swell leftovers with N or NW wind early. Best at south facing spots. Wind turns light and variable wind after noon. Wind turns S and increases by mid to late arvo but tides shut it down.
NY Waist to chest high ESE/SE combo swell leftovers with offshore (N/NW) wind early. Wind turns onshore after noon and form deteriorates.
Coaching Schedule Click here for details
LATE WEEK Surf Alert
Smaller leftovers on Thursday. Onshore wind on Friday
Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.
Watching multiple systems
for long range potential
LONG RANGE FORECAST
[IMPORTANT NOTE Long Range Forecasts are based on the data at hand but this information is constantly changing. Any forecast beyond 72 hours is based on the available information and is subject to change. I will do my absolute best to update this forecast as the data changes.]
LATE WEEK Surf Alert
THURSDAY With at least two systems on the outskirts of our swell window in the Western Atlantic and sustained S wind overnight, our region should see ESE/SE combo swell leftovers. With high pressure moves over the region and wind will be light and variable wind early but expect the late morning/early arvo southerlies.
FRIDAY Another frontal system crosses the region and onshore winds will prevail. Groundswell drops but windswell maintains.
WEEKEND Surf Alert
With frontal systems in the Atlantic, another developing system in the West that's moving east toward our region as well as sustained S wind on Friday there should be plenty of fun surf next weekend. It's too early to detail the specifics but I will keep you updated as data becomes available and reliable.
SEASONAL NOTES
Summer
Summer is here and there will be very few swell events over 3ft. However there's the one thing that you can rely on is the ever-present midday southerly wind as the days get warmer. This will be a double edged sword. On one hand it will make a mess of the surf at the exposed spots but will also create or sustain a somewhat predictable (albeit small) S or SE windswell for your morning sessions. As we head into summer this will be the most consistent swell you will surf in between actual swell events.
TROPICAL UPDATE
If we're lucky we should see a few solid rounds of groundswell from tropical storms and hurricanes before the peak of the 2021 Hurricane Season.
NOTE
While the North Pacific is still fertile with storm production, it has dramatically slowed down so most of those cells are much weaker than in Fall, Winter and Spring. This is predictable for this time of year so we will be relying on storms and frontal systems that will develop over the Mainland US for swell events beyond the usual tiny S/SE windswell. While the Pacific isn't exactly dormant now, it's no longer our primary source for storms that cross the US Mainland and the subsequent swell events.
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Tracking Tropical
Storm Claudette
Tropical Storm Claudette has entered the Western Atlantic and become the third swell producing storm for the 2021 Hurricane Season. I am also tracking another tropical wave that has entered the Atlantic Basin.
Furthermore, the National Weather Service is calling for yet another above normal hurricane season and this is both good for potential swell events and bad for potential devastating weather events for both the East Coast and the Caribbean.
See below for details.
RESOURCES
Buoys (Swell, wind, water temps in real time)
Buoy 44065 (Sandy Hook, NJ and Western Long Island)
Buoy 44025 (Long Island/Central NJ)
Buoy 44066 (Western Atlantic) Offline
Weather
Ocean Charts
Additional Resources
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ProSurf Coaches has programs to get you ready for the bigger, better surf of the season. For more info check out our Coaching Options or call us at 858.472.1382.
