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and Forecast for NJ

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Friday 13 November 2020

1:02pm

SSE and ESE windswell

1-3ft+ SSE and ESE windswell. NE wind this morning turns NW later today. Best on Long Island or at south facing spots on Long Island. Radical tides so timing your sessions is essential. 

Radical tides = drastically limited surfability

Because of the upcoming new moon our region will experience 

radical tide swings, sometimes with a 7 foot difference in tides.

This will make timing your sessions ultra critical, but 

expect very short windows of surfability. 

 

Regional Surf Report

NJ

Monmouth and Ocean County 

1-3ft+ SSE windswell with onshore wind and poor form. 

Atlantic and Cape May County 

1-3ft+ SSE windswell with sideshore/offshore wind. Best at south facing spots. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details 

 

NY

Queens-Nassau County

1-3ft+ SSE windswell with offshore/sideshore wind. Form dependent on tide.

Suffolk County 

1-3ft+ SSE windswell with offshore/sideshore wind. Form dependent on tide.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details  

Later Today SSE windswell continues. Wind swings between NW and WNW and east facing spots should clean up. The trick is timing the wind with the tide swings. 

 

FORECAST UPDATE  Surf Alert SE and E windswell gradually drops over the weekend. Another pulse of swell from Post-Tropical Storm Eta is possible today and tomorrow. Radical tides will make things tricky. 

Check out the Forecast Alert and 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.

LONG RANGE FORECAST 

Fun leftovers possible on Monday. Potentially lengthy flat spell next week.

Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.

TROPICAL UPDATE Storm Alert  Post-Tropical Storm Eta is in the Western Atlantic and moving into our swell window. Tracking two more storms. 

See the Tropical Update below for details.

Water Temp Update  57-59 degrees F.  A minimum of a 3/2 fullsuit is required. Water temps continue to drop. Time to break out the thicker rubber. 

Buoys

The local buoys are an excellent way to monitor your

local conditions in real time

These include:

44065 (Sandy Hook, NJ)

44025 (Long Island/NJ)

44091 (Barnegat, NJ)

44066 (Western Atlantic)

Please bookmark these for future reference. 

Fun SE and E windswell this weekend but radical tides

will make things tricky

FORECAST OVERVIEW 

RIGHT NOW  Surf Alert, but...

A frontal system containing Post-Tropical Storm Eta has moved off the coast. This system has moved directly into our swell window and this is pushing a small, fun SSE and ESE windswell toward our region. 

 

 

 

 

 

New Moon = Radical Tides

The new moon on Sunday will create radical tide

swings that will severely limit surfability at most

spots over the next several days

 

WEEKEND FORECAST Surf Alert, but...

SATURDAY SE and ESE swell drops into the 2-3ft range. Moderate WNW wind at dawn, turns NW by mid to late morning.  It could turn back W by late arvo so watch the flags at your local. 

SUNDAY A cold front moves across the region and things go to shit as gradually strengthening south wind tear into the region. Gale force south winds in the forecast by midday so nothing will be surfable anywhere. S windswell builds quickly. Wind forecast to turn SW then W before dawn the following day. 

Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details.

THE TROPICS STORM ALERT

Post-Tropical Storm Eta. has merged with a frontal system just offshore. Tracking two additional systems, one in the Caribbean Sea and another in the Eastern Atlantic. 

Check out the TROPICAL UPDATE  below for details.

 

LONG RANGE FORECAST 

NEXT WEEK Fun leftovers possible on Monday. Flat surf and seasonably appropriate temperatures return on Tuesday and lingers through next week.  

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST  below for details.

THE X-FACTOR

The North Pacific is active and sending strong storms toward the US.  These storms are an excellent source of swell for our region as long as the jet stream cooperates.

SE windswell lingers

Flip-flopping wind

Radical tides

FRIDAY Surf Alert, but...

3-4ft ESE and SE windswell with ENE wind with poor form early. Wind turns N by late morning/early arvo and south facing spots will turn on and clean up. 

NOTE Radical tides will severely limit surfability.

NJ Waist to chest high surf with onshore wind early. South facing spots in Southern NJ will clean up after the wind switch. East facing spots will see poor form all day. 

NY Waist to chest high surf with sideshore wind early. Wind turns offshore by late morning/early arvo and surf will gradually clean up.  

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

SATURDAY Surf Alert, but...

1-3ft ESE and SE windswell with WNW wind early. Wind turns NW and swell begins to drop by midmorning. Wind forecast to turn W by late arvo. 

NOTE Radical tides will severely limit surfability.

NJ Waist high+ surf with WNW wind early. Wind turns NW by midmorning. South or Southeast facing spots further south will offer more surfable options. 

NY Waist high+ surf. Best around midday. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

SUNDAY 

Gradually increasing S wind, poor form. S windswell increases through the day. 

NJ Sideshore wind, poor form. 

NY Onshore wind, poor form. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

NEXT WEEK 

Brief window of fun surf on Monday morning. Flat for the rest of the week.

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

Developing high pressure will 

block any storms from reaching

our swell window next week

LONG RANGE FORECAST

 

Here's the breakdown

Eta has weakened into a Post-Tropical Cyclone and merged with a large frontal system that has moved into the Western Atlantic, just offshore. This combined system has delivered a fun SE and ESE swell for our region, but we can also expect flip-flopping wind as a secondary system passes over our region on Saturday morning. 

Another system will pass over the region on Sunday so we will see strong S wind and rapidly building S windswell that peaks overnight. Monday will see a brief pulse of swell before getting hammered with strong W wind as developing high pressure moves over the East Coast. This high will cut our region off from any swell-producing storms (like the one that moves out of the Pacific and onto the Pacific Northwest this weekend) well into next week and possibly next weekend. 

The good news is this is temporary. The North Pacific is still very extremely active and will remain so through the next several months. The East Coast relies on storms that come out of the North Pacific, make landfall on the West Coast then move across the US and hopefully make their way into our window.  This train of storms will continue well into Spring and, provided they follow an easterly track and if the jet stream cooperates, provide our region with solid surf through the Late Fall, Winter and Early Spring. However, at the moment that parade of storms is temporarily shut down by high pressure in the Eastern Pacific. 

See the Forecast Update map above for details. 

 

SEASONAL OUTLOOK: Mid-Late Fall 

This is the time of year when we watch every single cell of low pressure or frontal system as they track out of the Pacific and across the US. Also, the end of the 2020 Hurricane Season is weeks away so things are (supposed to be) winding down in the Atlantic Basin, yet the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are still very active.  

Apparently the 2020 Hurricane Season

is not over yet

TROPICAL UPDATE

With Tropical Storm Theta becoming the 29th named storm this year (so far) the 2020 Hurricane Season has broken all previous records for the number of tropical and subtropical storms in a single year. However, with another storm forming in the Caribbean Sea and expected to develop soon, this season isn't over yet.

 

Here's the breakdown 

 

Post-Tropical Storm Eta has moved into the Western Atlantic and merged with a large frontal system. This combined system has moved into our swell window but will quickly move northeast into the North Atlantic on Saturday. The speed of this system will severely limit its potential for swell development so I don't expect much surf from it, if any at all.  (Some of the "swell magnets" in Southern NJ or Eastern Long Island may see some additional ESE groundswell but it will most likely happen overnight and for a very brief time)

There's another system that is moving into the  Caribbean Sea tomorrow and forecast to follow the same (or similar) track as Eta. This system has been given a  90% chance of development and, once named it will become Tropical Storm Iota

Tropical Storm Theta continues to spin in the Eastern Atlantic. This storm is still on a an easterly track, then forecast to turn due north on Monday. Theta is still far away so it poses no threat nor will it be a swell producer for the US.  What makes Theta so unusual is that it's the 29th named storm. 

So far, the 2020 Hurricane Season has seen a  total of 29 tropical or subtropical cyclones, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. At a time when things should be winding down this season is still going strong. 

Check out the Tropical Update map above for details

 

OBSERVATIONS

The 2020 Hurricane Season ends 30 November but there's still plenty of activity in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned because, you know, it's 2020 and apparently nothing is off the table.  

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