Eyeball Surf Report
Detailed Surf Report and Forecast for NJ and
Long Island, NY
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Sunday 5 July 2020
Arvo Update 5:56pm
Small Combo Swell
Tiny ESE and SE combo swell. Waves are in the 1-2ft+ range with SSW wind. It's funky but surfable but bring a big board. Be mindful of the holiday crowds.
Regional Surf Report
Shin to thigh high surf with fair-poor form. It's surfable but bring a big board.
Shin the thigh high+ surf (bigger at spots with good exposure to the swell direction) with fair-poor form.
Knee to thigh high surf with light onshore wind and fair-poor form.
Knee to thigh high+ surf with light onshore wind and fair-poor form.
Later Today Wind turns more southerly and most spots will see deteriorating conditions but maintains/builds existing SE windswell. Background ESE swell continues.
FORECAST ALERT Small surf this week but tracking a tropical depression that could bump up the swell numbers later this week. Check out the Forecast Alert and 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.
LONG RANGE FORECAST Tracking another potential storm that will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Atlantic that could push another swell toward our region by late week or next weekend. Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.
Water Temp Update 75 degrees. A spring suit should be more than enough for the early morning sessions but keep the fullsuit handy in case of cold water upwelling.
TROPICAL UPDATE Tracking Tropical Depression Five and one more system that could deliver fun surf late week and weekend.
See the Tropical Update below for details.
Small surf this week pending
a developing storm in
the Western Atlantic
RIGHT NOW Small combo swell
We have re-entered the pattern of weak frontal systems, midday S wind and small but temperamental S windswell, which is typical for peak summer. This has combined with small frontrunner ESE swell from Tropical Depression Five, which has just formed just north of Bermuda.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY Watching Tropical Depression Five
The issue with TD5 is that's it's not expected to develop into a much stronger storm (at least while it's in our window) and moving NE way too fast. This will make for a minimally productive storm but we could see some swell in the next 48 hours as it passes into the North Atlantic. It's a long shot but worth monitoring.
NOTE: A passing frontal system will mess with our local winds. Expect gradually increasing southerly winds starting at dawn.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY Surf Alert?
There's another tropical disturbance currently in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to move into the Western Atlantic and into the hotspot just south of the Carolinas. While the jury is still out this system has much greater chance of development and our region could see a larger SE groundswell as soon as Friday and could linger into the weekend.
Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details
NEXT WEEKEND Surf Alert?
If the system in the Gulf develops late week our region could see fun surf through the weekend. See above and check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.
The Tropics As explained above, there are two systems worth watching for the next five days but despite the potentially historic early season storms we are still dealing with Saharan dust in the atmosphere. With this dust over much of the Atlantic Basin and a large portion of the Western Atlantic, this will choke out any potential developing storms in the Western Atlantic.
Check out the TROPICAL UPDATE BELOW below for details.
The Good News With back to back groundswell events from non or sub tropical systems this summer has actually been more productive that originally anticipated. It's also been super fun for longboarders, kids and entry level surfers. Because we are currently in a La Nina pattern globally, this has set us up for a more productive hurricane season, as well as a somewhat active season of frontal system that feed us those smaller, short-period, short-duration windswell nearly every day.
The Not So Good News We are still in the Summer Doldrums and new pattern of tropical systems could fall apart at any time. Keep the big boards handy.
Attention ProSurf Coaches Clients:
We have resumed coaching sessions.
Small surf this week but tracking another swell event for late week
MONDAY Small surf
Small ESE and SE combo swell with light (<5 knots) W wind with glassy conditions. Waves in the knee to thigh high range. Mid morning tides will shut down most spots by 8am so find a high tide spot. Wind turns light and variable by late morning then S by noon. Increasing S wind will cause most spots to deteriorate after lunch at exposed spots. Look for a spot with good S wind protection.
NJ Shin to knee high surf with offshore (W) wind early. Tide issues after 8am. Wind issues after 1pm. Some spots with good exposure will pick up the swell better but wind will be an issue by midday.
NY Shin to knee high surf with light wind early. Tide and wind issues through the day. Could be slightly larger further east.
TUESDAY Small surf
1-2ft+ combo swell with light and variable wind through most of the day. Tide issues after 9am. SE wind increases after 2pm and form deteriorates at exposed spots.
NOTE: New long-period swell event possible by midday. Stay tuned.
NJ Fun 1-2ft+ combo swell with light wind.
NY Fun 1-2ft+ combo swell with light wind.
WEDNESDAY Surf Alert
New long-period ENE and ESE groundswell mixes with existing S trade swell. Waves in the 1-3ft range but S wind will start at dawn and increase gradually through the day. Most spots will see fair-poor but gradually deteriorating surf through the day. Seek a spot in NJ with good protection from the southerlies for best form. Most other spots will be ugly but surfable.
NJ Seek a spot with good S wind protection for best form.
NY Sustained and gradually increasing onshore wind. Fair but deteriorating form early, aggravated through the day as the onshore wind increases.
LATE WEEK Surf Alert
Tracking two additions systems that should bring the region more surf. Check out the Long Range Surf Forecast below for details.
NJ See below
NY See below
Very active Tropical Season, way ahead of schedule. Check out the Tropical Update below for details.
Tracking two potential
swell building systems
Long Range Surf Forecast Update
We are monitoring Tropical Depression Five and another system that is currently in the Gulf of Mexico. A betting man would put his odds on the second system for development and swell potential. See the Forecast Update map above for details.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY Surf Alert
Tracking the potential for more swell for late week and into the weekend.
NJ Stay tuned
NY Stay tuned
SEASONAL OUTLOOK: Summer 2020
Small, short-period, hit and run windswell events will be the meat and potatoes of our swell events for the next 75 days
Be prepared for swell events with little lead time
Hurricane Season has been active way and way ahead of schedule.
Check the Eyeball Surf Report often for updates.
Tracking two systems that should deliver the goods this week and possibly into the weekend
Because we are currently in a La Nina pattern globally, this has set us up for a more productive hurricane season than the previous 5 summers.
The big thing that I noticed is the lack of the monster dome of high pressure in the Central Atlantic that usually c**k blocks any developing storms in the Atlantic Basin and shoves them west along the equator and toward the Pacific. Stay tuned as things continue to develop.
EARLY SEASON TROPICAL ACTIVITY
Tropical Depression Five is in our swell window now but is not expected to develop in the next 36 hours and is moving NE at 21mph
Tracking another system in the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to enter the Western Atlantic on Wednesday. This system will enter the hotspot between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Once there it's odds of developing into a Tropical System increase dramatically.
Stay tuned for details