Eyeball Surf Report

Detailed Surf 
Forecast for NJ
 

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FORECAST 
OVERVIEW

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MONDAY 8 AUGUST 2022

UPDATE

 

DETAILED NJ SURF REPORT and 72 HOUR FORECAST

Check out the 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details

Water Temp Update  74-76 degrees but expect upwelling of colder water this week

 

FORECAST OVERVIEW

Right Now After a weeklong flat spell a frontal system is moving into the Western Atlantic just offshore, and this has set up a pattern of strong S wind and a small but building, pre-frontal, short-period S/SSE windswell. This wind pattern continues all day and tonight so this windswell should build into the 2ft+ range today and overnight. 

Mid Week

(Small) Surf Alert

This frontal system will drop down, cross the MidAtlantic Region and stretches out across the North Atlantic, then stalls for the next few days. As this happens, two (or more) cells of low pressure will develop just offshore. Some of the models I've seen have at least one of these cells strengthening within our swell window in the next 48-72 hours.  

 

Right now, some of you are asking yourself, "what the f**k" is this guy talking about?" so I'll break it down for you in simpler terms: This means that this depressing, week-long flat spell might be over... for now. I am also that this system dislodges the storm-blocking dome of high pressure that's been parked in the Western Atlantic

because that's been one of the primary causes of the recent flat spell. 

 

While there's still a great deal of uncertainty because of the time of year, the timing of what's currently happening makes sense in the bigger picture as we head into the peak of Hurricane Season.

LONG RANGE FORECAST 

Late Week

Surf Alert?

Some (not all) of the weather models are showing a cell of low pressure developing in the Western Atlantic just off our coast over the weekend. If this happens, NJ could see its first solid swell event of the summer. Also, if the models are correct this swell event won't be a slam dunk for NJ because the proximity of this strengthening storm will create problematic north winds. Stay tuned. 

Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details

[UNDER CONSTRUCTION]

TROPICAL UPDATE  

Currently watching a tropical wave that has emerged in the Atlantic Basin and this has been given a moderate chance of development. Stay tuned. 

Check out the Tropical Update below for details. 

 

COACHING SCHEDULE Click here for details

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Building S windswell today and tomorrow

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MONDAY 8 AUGUST 2022

Surf Alert UPDATE*

Moderate to strong S wind. Most spots are flat because of the deep high

NOTE:  Shortened window of surfability this week due to extreme tide swings.

Sustained S wind will create colder water from upwelling, but will also add a foot or so more S windswell overnight. 

(*See SWELL EVENT NOTES for details)

Monmouth/Ocean County Most spots are flat. Strong sideshore (S) wind. 

Atlantic/Cape May County 

East-facing spots: Most spots are flat. Strong sideshore (S) wind. 

South-facing spots: Onshore (S) wind. Poor. 

COACHING SCHEDULE Click here for details

*SWELL EVENT NOTES 

TUESDAY 9 AUGUST 2022

Surf Alert*

1-3ft S/SSE windswell with light SW/WSW wind early. Light/variable wind after 1pm.

Southern NJ sees poor form due to onshore wind.  

NOTE: Limited surfability due to extreme tides.

(*See SWELL EVENT NOTES for details)

Monmouth/Ocean County Knee-thigh high+ S windswell. Offshore (SW/WSW)

wind through the morning. Light and variable wind after 1pm. 

NOTE: Slightly bigger surf in Southern Ocean County (maybe waist+) 

Atlantic/Cape May County 

East-facing spots: Knee-waist high+ S windswell. Offshore (SW/WSW) wind through the morning. S/SSW wind after 1pm so form suffers. 

South-facing spots: Knee to thigh high S windswell. Light sideshore/onshore (SW/WSW) wind. Wind turns onshore by late morning and form deteriorates further.

COACHING SCHEDULE Click here for details

*SWELL EVENT NOTES 

  • 48 hour Atlantic Forecast Map Click Here

  • SWELL Short-period, prefrontal 1-2ft S/SSE windswell. Some spots in Southern Ocean and Atlantic County should see slightly bigger surf.  

  • WIND Light to moderate (10-12mph) SW/WSW wind at dawn. Wind turns SSW briefly by early arvo then turns light and variable after 1pm. However Southern NJ will most likely see stronger southerlies which negatively impact form. 

  • TIDE Extreme tides thanks to the upcoming Full Moon. Check your Local Tide Chart for details. 

 

WEDNESDAY 10 AUGUST 2022

Small*

1-2ft+ S/SSE windswell with light N wind through the morning. Form deteriorates at exposed spots as wind turns onshore/sideshore. 

NOTE: Extreme tides will limit surfability

(*See SWELL EVENT NOTES for details)

Monmouth/Ocean County Shin to knee high+ S windswell with light sideshore (N) wind. Fair form. Best on the lower tides. 

NOTE: Look for slightly bigger surf in Southern Ocean County (maybe knee+) 

Atlantic/Cape May County 

East-facing spots: Knee high S windswell with light sideshore (N) wind. Fair form. Best on the lower tides. 

South-facing spots: Knee to thigh high S windswell with offshore (N) wind 

COACHING SCHEDULE Click here for details

*SWELL EVENT NOTES 

LATE WEEK

Surf Alert?

Tiny surf on Thursday and Friday but watching a developing storm that could drastically change the forecast for this upcoming weekend. Stay tuned. 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details. [UNDER CONSTRUCTION]

COACHING SCHEDULE Click here for details

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THINGS ARE HEATING UP IN THE TROPICS AND NORTH ATLANTIC

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The Hurricane Season 2022 Forecast

Update

The Tropics and North Atlantic remain mostly inhospitable for developing systems. 

However, this season is showing signs of gradual maturity and will inevitably allow storms to develop, mature into stronger storms and produce bigger and stronger surf for the East Coast. This process takes weeks, but as the variables fall into place, it will eventually allow for tropical waves to enter the Atlantic Basin and develop unhindered into stronger storms then move into our swell window in the North Atlantic. 

There are two system in particular: 
One is a new tropical wave that has just emerged in the Atlantic Basin and, despite multiple variables in the Tropics and North Atlantic, this system has been given a 40% chance of development so it will be monitored for strength and trajectory for the next few days. Keep in mind that it's still very early in the life of this system and even if it were to take the correct path and develop accordingly, it would still be a week before we saw any swell from this system. 

The next system is cell of low pressure that's forecast to develop in the Western Atlantic over the weekend. This isn't a slam dunk and there's lots of uncertainty. 

I will keep you updated as things develop. 

HERE ARE THE LINGERING DETRIMENTAL VARIABLES THAT ARE HINDERING DEVELOPING STORMS NOW: 

 

1. An usually strong Atlantic High in the Northeast Atlantic is causing stronger than normal trade and upper level winds, and this has a two-pronged effect on Tropical Waves entering the Atlantic Basin: 

 

a. Strong, unseasonable upper level and surface trade winds created by the stronger-than-normal domes of high pressure in the North Atlantic. These winds are lopping off the tops of any Tropical Waves moving off the African Coast and/or vastly limiting their potential for convection. 

 

b. These winds are also causing highly unseasonable cold water upwelling both in the Tropics and across parts of the North Atlantic. This colder water on the surface further weakens Tropical Waves and prevents them from developing into stronger storms. 

 

2 Saharan dust, created by surface trade winds then carried over the Atlantic Basin and North Atlantic by upper level winds, are further killing any developing Tropical Waves. This dust creates vast areas of dry air over areas that are normally moisture-rich which is required for developing tropical storms. 

 

Expect things to remain slow through most of August but there are several 

indicators that things will heat up quickly as we head into late August and especially September. 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE: On average 76% of the Hurricane Season season (and the swell events they create) occurs between 15 August and 30 September 

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THE 2022 HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTIONS

After back to back historic seasons, 2022 is setting up to be epic but let's hope for maximum swell potential and minimal damage. Check out this LINK for details

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IMPORTANT STUFF TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS

*A tropical wave is a cluster of thunderstorms that crosses the African Continent, originating to the East in the Indian Ocean, and moves into the Atlantic Basin near the equator. Once this happens we watch it for potential development into a larger, more powerful storm like a tropical storm or hurricane.

 

**The Atlantic Basin is the cradle of tropical storms and hurricanes and is located at the Equator between West Africa, crosses the Cabo Verde Islands and stretches across to the northern tip of South America

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THIS SECTION IS BEING 
REFORMATTED

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IMPORTANT NOTE

Long Range Forecasts are based on the data at hand but this information is constantly changing. Any forecast beyond 72 hours is based on the available information and is subject to change, so I will do my absolute best to update this forecast as the data changes.

 

SYNOPSIS

LATE WEEK

JULY 2022

Surf Alert

72 hour Atlantic Forecast Map

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

FORECAST 

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

THE X-FACTOR 

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

JULY 2022 

SURF ALERT

96 Hour Atlantic Forecast Map

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

FORECAST 

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

THE X-FACTOR 

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

SEASONAL NOTES

THE GOOD, BAD and the UGLY

Early Summer 2022

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

 

THE X-FACTORS

The Bad News

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

 Surf More

Surf Better

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