Eyeball Surf Report

Detailed Surf Forecast for NJ and Long Island, NY

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Friday 3 December 2021

8:21am

1-2ft+ short-period S windswell with E/SE/ESE groundswell leftovers. Strong, gusty WNW wind. The early morning high tide has shut down most spots. Swell is dropping quickly. The trick will be timing the outgoing tide and the dropping swell.

RADICAL TIDE SWINGS Radical tide swings from the new moon (4 Dec) will limit surfability for most spots.

Later Today Strong, sustained WNW wind. Surf drops to flat by late morning.

Overnight FLAT. Light NW wind.

WEATHER/CONDITIONS ALERT Strong winds

REGIONAL SURF REPORT

Monmouth and Ocean County

Knee to thigh+ high combo swell leftovers with strong offshore (WNW) wind. Swell dropping rapidly so hit it early. Find a spot that can handle the high tide with good wind protection.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

Atlantic and Cape May County

East Facing: Knee to waist high combo swell leftovers with strong offshore (WNW) wind. Swell dropping rapidly so hit it early. Find a spot that can handle the high tide with good wind protection.

South Facing: Knee to thigh high+ combo swell leftovers. Strong offshore/sideshore (WNW) wind. Fair form. Find a high tide spot with good wind protection.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

Queens-Nassau County

Knee to thigh high+ combo swell leftovers. Strong sideshore (WNW) wind. Poor form

Suffolk County

Knee to waist high+ combo swell leftovers. Strong sideshore (WNW) wind. Poor form

FORECAST UPDATE FLAT

Flat on Saturday. Onshore wind, building windswell on Sunday.

Check out the 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

LONG RANGE FORECAST SURF ALERT

Another swell event next week.

Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.

TROPICAL UPDATE

That's a wrap for the the 2021 Hurricane Season.

Check out the Tropical Update below for the breakdown of another historic season.

Water Temp Update 52-55 degrees F. A minimum of a hooded 4/3 fullsuit with 3mm boots and gloves are recommended.

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Leftovers on Friday
Flat this weekend
Another swell next week

FRIDAY 3 DECEMBER 2021

(Small) Surf Alert*

1-3ft combo swell leftovers. Sustained, strong WNW wind. Swell dropping quickly.

NJ Knee to thigh high surf with the occasional waist high set early. Offshore (WNW) wind. Definitely looking best further south.

NY Knee to waist high surf with sideshore (WNW) wind. Poor form at most spots.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

*SWELL EVENT NOTES

SWELL 1-3ft S windswell and E/SE/ESE groundswell leftovers early. Drops to flat by mid to late morning.
WIND Moderate (12-15mph) WNW wind through the day.
TIDE Radical tide swings from the new moon on Saturday 4 December
WEATHER/CONDITIONS ALERT Expect gusty WNW wind all day
BEST BOARD FOR TODAY Midlength or Longboard at dawn

SATURDAY 4 DECEMBER 2021

Flat*

FLAT. Light and variable wind.

NJ FLAT

NY FLAT

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

*SWELL EVENT NOTES

SWELL FLAT
WIND Light and variable all day
TIDE Radical tide swings from the new moon on Saturday 4 December
WEATHER/CONDITIONS ALERT N/A
BEST BOARD FOR TODAY N/A

SUNDAY 5 DECEMBER 2021

Flat*

Flat with light NW wind early. Wind turns E and small windswell begins to build by mid arvo.

NJ FLAT

NY FLAT

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

*SWELL EVENT NOTES

SWELL FLAT. New, short-period windswell begins to build by mid arvo.
WIND NW wind early. Wind turns ENE by mid arvo.
TIDE Radical tide swings from the new moon on Saturday 4 December
WEATHER/CONDITIONS ALERT N/A
BEST BOARD FOR TODAY N/A

NEXT WEEK

SURF ALERT

Back to back swell events next week.

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

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Flat on Saturday
Onshore wind on Sunday
New swell event next week

IMPORTANT NOTE

Long Range Forecasts are based on the data at hand but this information is constantly changing. Any forecast beyond 72 hours is based on the available information and is subject to change, so I will do my absolute best to update this forecast as the data changes.

SYNOPSIS

We are heading into another short flat spell this weekend but back to back frontal systems will deliver more swell next week.

See below for details.

FORECAST

RIGHT NOW

Surf Alert, but...

See the Current Atlantic Forecast Map here

Small, quickly dropping S windswell and E/SE/ESE groundswell leftovers will drop to flat by strong WNW wind as the cold fronts quickly move into the Atlantic. Currently watching back to back frontal systems that will move over our region and into the Western Atlantic on Sunday evening, setting our region up for more swell next week.

WEEKEND

SATURDAY

FLAT

24 hour Western Atlantic Forecast Map

High pressure moves over the region and strengthens in the Western Atlantic, pushing any swell producing systems out of range. Flat surf with light wind all day.

Watching a strengthening frontal system in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley as it moves toward the East Coast.

SUNDAY

Onshore wind/Building swell

48 hour Western Atlantic Forecast Map

That frontal system will continue to move toward the East Coast and local wind turns onshore by midday and begins a new cycle of building windswell. This system then

enters the Western Atlantic after sundown, and local wind turns strong south. However once that cell of low pressure within that front hits open water it will begin to strengthen and this will be a secondary source of swell for early next week.

NEXT WEEK

MONDAY

SURF ALERT

72 hour Western Atlantic Forecast Map

Local wind will remain south and relatively strong as we wait for this front to move further out to sea. This will continue to fuel the SE windswell/groundswell mix but conditions will remain messy until the wind switches. The question is, when will the wind switch and will it happen during daylight hours?

The good news is that as we wait for the wind to hopefully turn offshore (WSW) the surf should build into the 5ft++ range.

More good news There's another front developing in the Ohio Valley that will move toward the East Coast.

The not so good news is that once the wind swings around it's going to blow hard

(W @ 20mph+) and the swell will begin the decline. This will be reinforced as the secondary source of swell, the strengthening low in the Central Atlantic will get bumped further out to sea. Expect the swell numbers to drop overnight.

TUESDAY

SURF ALERT

96 Hour Western Atlantic Forecast Map

With a cold front in the Atlantic and favorable wind (WNW or NW) there should be plenty of 3-4ft+ SE combo swell leftovers on Tuesday.

More good news There's yet another frontal system behind this system and this should set up our region for another swell event late week.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

STORM and SURF ALERT

More storms and more surf. Stay tuned.

STILL WATCHING THE PACIFIC

There's a massive frontal system about to make landfall in the Pacific Northwest and the the North Pacific is loaded up with strong, back to back storms that are moving out of the Aleutian Islands then south then east toward the Pacific Northwest.

NOTE An active pattern of storms in the North Pacific is typical for La Nina and

these Pacific-borne systems will be our primary source of swell for the rest of Fall and through the winter, just as long as the jet stream continues to cooperate.

I remain optimistic that these storms will carry one with delivering fun surf until the patter changes in early to mid Spring.

The X-Factor

The Goddamn Army Corps of Engineers

The wasteful Army Corps of Engineers "beach replenishment" projects in Deal, Allenhurst and Loch Harbor NJ will dump excessive sand and change the existing bathymetry over the next few months. This will have lasting effects on the nearby sandbars over the next several months and into the summer as inevitable erosion removes the sand from that area and spreads it the surrounding breaks. Stay tuned.

NOTE Please CONTACT ME with any other Army Corps of Engineers projects that you see about so I can share them here

SEASONAL NOTES

THE GOOD, BAD and the UGLY

Fall/Winter 2021-2022

GOOD With La Nina firmly in place, we can expect more storms to move in from the Pacific, cross the US then deliver consistent surf through the rest of Fall then through the Winter and Spring.

BAD Not only is the La Nina cycle known for more storms but they're also notorious for increased precipitation and colder than normal air temps for the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and New England.

UGLY More precipitation and colder than recent air temps this winter = snow

That's a wrap for the
2021 Hurricane Season
See below for the recap

BREAKDOWN

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is now officially over, ending a period in which eight storms smacked into the U.S. coast. With 21 named storms, 2021 ranks as the third most active year in history, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This season started and ended early but still managed to deliver over 17 fun swell events before it ended. Check out this video for the full recap

MAP DETAILS

N/A

IMPORTANT STUFF TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS

*A tropical wave is a cluster of thunderstorms that crosses the African Continent, originating to the East in the Indian Ocean, and moves into the Atlantic Basin near the equator. Once this happens we watch it for potential development into a larger, more powerful storm like a tropical storm or hurricane.

**The Atlantic Basin is the cradle of tropical storms and hurricanes and is located at the Equator between West Africa, crosses the Cabo Verde Islands and stretches across to the northern tip of South America