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Monday 1 March 2021

9:45am

S windswell

2-4ft+ SE and ESE windswell with light W wind this morning. Despite the size the waves are pretty soft so recommend bringing a fish, groveler or midlength. Definitely bigger at S facing spots. Swell will gradually drop after the tide switch.  

Regional Surf Report

NJ

Monmouth and Ocean County 

Waist-shoulder high+ S and ESE windswell. Offshore wind and fair-good form. 

Atlantic and Cape May County 

Waist-shoulder high+ S and ESE windswell. Offshore wind and fair-good form.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details 

 

NY

Queens-Nassau County

Waist-shoulder high+ S and ESE windswell. Light sideshore wind, fair form. 

Suffolk County 

Waist-shoulder high+ S and ESE windswell. Light sideshore wind, fair form. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details  

 

Later Today S and E windswell drops as the W wind gradually increases to the double digits by mid arvo and potentially gale force by tonight. Air temps drop below freezing tonight. 

FORECAST ALERT (UPDATE) 

Pessimistic outloook for this week but tracking another storm entering our swell window that has the possibility to push another swell by midweek... maybe

Check out the Forecast Alert and 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.

LONG RANGE FORECAST 

Low expectations this weekend. 

Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.

Water Temp Update  35-42 degrees F.  A minimum of 5/3 hooded fullsuit, boots and gloves and hood is recommended.

Buoys

The local buoys are an excellent way to

monitor your local conditions in real time

These include:

44065 (Sandy Hook, NJ and Western Long Island)

44025 (Long Island/NJ)

44091 (Southern NJ)

44066 (Western Atlantic) Offline/Down for maintenance

Please bookmark these for future reference. 

Fun leftovers today

Fingers crossed for midweek

Potential lengthy flat spell possible

FORECAST OVERVIEW

Late Winter and Early Spring March is notorious for consistent surf but also for weak, seasonal warm fronts, extended periods of rain or wet snow and onshore or sideshore wind. There will plenty of surf but expect periods of time when you will have to wait (or drive) for favorable winds or simply lower your standards. March is also know for having the coldest water temps of the year that gradually warm up as we head deeper into Spring. Keep your fingers crossed that the conditions cooperate as we head into summer. 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Moon and Radical Tides

The recent full moon (Saturday) has created radical tide

changes and limited surfability at most spots this

weekend and next week

 

RIGHT NOW Surf Alert 

This frontal system will continue to slowly pass over the region so we can expect another pulse of SE windswell as well as more rain but and the local winds will lighten and turn from south to west before dawn. Conditions clean up again in NJ just before dawn and should remain fun through the rest of the day but watch the tides. Overnight This frontal system moves out to sea just after sunset and local (WNW) winds will gradually increase, knocking down the surf overnight. 

TUESDAY Dropping With the frontal system moving out to sea overnight, high pressure will quickly move in behind it and the WNW/NW wind will increase to potentially gale force and this will continue to blow the surf out. Swell drops the flat by midday but with this storm in our swell window in the Western Atlantic, our region could see another pulse of groundswell by midweek. Fingers crossed. 

Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details.

 

LONG RANGE FORECAST

MID to LATE WEEK Surf Alert? 

Again, with a frontal system entering our swell window in the Western Atlantic our region could see a fun and potentially solid pulse of E groundswell from it. This is completely dependent on how fast that system moves once it enters the ocean so there's no guarantees. Stay tuned. 

There's one factor that concerns me is the massive dome of high pressure in the North Pacific that will alter the path of the jet stream and could potentially shut down the parade of storms that have delivered so much swell to our region since October.

Another dome of high pressure in the West and Central Plains may also shut down the storm and swell train later this week. If this stays true then we can expect another short flat spell this weekend. Stay tuned. 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

THE X-FACTOR

Our region has seen a blitz of fun surf since late October, thanks to an active storm pattern in the North Pacific.  Those storms have tracked across the US and delivered at least one swell per week since late Fall and winter. Many of these storms have exited into the Atlantic and re-strengthened in our swell window. So far these have been a consistent source of long-period groundswell after the storms initial impact and resulting swell event. 

Fun pulse of S swell on Monday

Potential for more midweek

MONDAY SURF ALERT

Fun 2-3ft+ S windswell and SE groundswell leftovers with W or WNW wind. NJ will see fun surf but the midmorning high tide will shut down most spots at dawn. Either find a high tide spot or wait until the tide drops.  NY will see larger surf but sideshore wind and poor form. 

NOTE Moderate littoral current. 

NJ Waist to belly high+ S combo swell with good to excellent form.  Most spots will be best at mid tide at late morning/early arvo. Potentially larger further south. 

NY Waist to belly high+ S combo swell with good to excellent form.  Some of the SE and ESE facing spots could see larger surf.  Most spots will be best at mid tide at late morning/early arvo.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

 

TUESDAY Dropping

2ft S windswell leftovers with strong, potentially gale force NW wind. Wind turns WNW but remains strong by late morning and surf drops to flat. 

NJ Tiny surf at dawn with windy conditions. Flat by mid to late morning.  

NY Tiny S windswell leftovers at dawn with offshore/sideshore wind. Flat by midday.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

WEDNESDAY Surf Alert

Watching for a potential new groundswell. Light WSW or SW wind. Stay tuned.  

NJ Stay tuned 

NY Stay tuned

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

LATE WEEK and WEEKEND 

There's some uncertainty. Stay tuned. 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

THIS FORECAST IS

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

LONG RANGE FORECAST

SURF ALERT 

 

Here's the breakdown

THIS FORECAST IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION. 

My real concern is a huge dome of high pressure that has just developed in the Central and North Pacific that may have just shut down the parade of storms that have been delivering storms and solid surf for the East Coast since Late October. I will be monitoring this situation closely and will keep you updated.  

 

Please see the image above for the complete breakdown 

LONG RANGE FORECAST OBSERVATIONS

What really has my attention is the parade of powerful storms across the North Pacific. Many of these storms will track east across the Pacific Northwest then continue east with the jet stream toward the US. For the past several weeks these storms have been the primary source of consistent swell (and weather) for our region

and it's looking like this will continue through winter and into early spring. 

See the Forecast Update map above for details. 

 

SEASONAL OUTLOOK: Late Winter 

This is the time of year when we watch every single cell of low pressure or frontal system as they track out of the Pacific and across the US. We also keep an eye on systems that form and develop further south, especially when they exit off the Carolinas or Georgia. Also tracking strengthening storms in the Central and North Atlantic as they develop in the open ocean. 

 Surf More

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