E combo swell builds today

Swell peaks tomorrow

Lingers through the weekend

FORECAST OVERVIEW

RIGHT NOW  Surf Alert, but...

A storm with a pair of cells of low pressure within it has moved directly off the coast, and is sitting directly in our swell window. This system is pumping a building E groundswell toward our region. Simultaneously, there's a frontal system passing over the region (hence the rain and onshore wind), so there's another prefrontal ESE windswell on top of the existing E groundswell. 

LATER TODAY That frontal system will move over the region then ENE and into the Western Atlantic and this should push yet another E swell toward our region. This will make a total of three cells of swell-producing systems sitting directly in our swell window. 

WIND FORECAST Surf Alert As this system passes over, the local winds should gradually lighten by mid arvo then turn SW then W by mid to late arvo-early evening. This will coincide with the incoming tide so it will be wise to monitor your local spot for improving conditions this evening. 

FRIDAY SURF ALERT

All of those systems in the Atlantic will gradually move east but will stay relatively productive, and the added fetch should increase the period of this swell on Friday (and the weekend). The nearshore cell will strengthen further as it moves ENE and the swell from this storm will increase both in size and period, topping off in the 4-5ft range at the east facing spots in NJ. South facing spots in both NJ and NY will see slightly smaller conditions. 

Wind Forecast As the low moves ENE the local wind will swing between WNW and NW for most of the day so I recommend monitoring your local wind conditions. 

WEEKEND FORECAST

SATURDAY and SUNDAY SURF ALERT

As all of the previously mentioned storms move further east into the Atlantic, the E groundswell will drop into the 2-3ft range. There is some uncertainty with the wind forecast but it should be fairly light. Stay tuned. 

Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details.

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LONG RANGE FORECAST

NEXT WEEK Surf Alert

Watching a large frontal system that is draped across the South that will move into the Atlantic by early next week. Tracking a few weaker systems in the North Pacific that will need to monitored for track and long range potential for surf for our region. 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

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THE X-FACTORS

The North Pacific continues to slow down. With fewer and fewer storms dropping out of the Aleutians and Bering Sea, those storms that delivered solid surf through the winter are becoming fewer and fewer. This will result in the reliance on weaker, locally born systems and hit-and-run, short duration swell events. 

Why do we watch the Pacific? During the Late Fall and Winter our region relies heavily on storms that originate in the North Pacific. Some of these storms will travel via the Jet Stream and make their way east and into our swell window. Spring will see an occasional storm that originates in the Pacific, but these storms continue to become fewer as we head closer to Summer.

Developing storms in the Western Atlantic. We will continue to watch any system or cell that enters the Western Atlantic for swell potential because the open ocean is s perfect environment for strengthening and development.

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Early Season Tropical Activity (i.e. Tropical/Subtropical Storms and Hurricanes) in the Atlantic is not out of the question as things warm up in the Tropics and North Atlantic. Stay tuned.