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Thursday 15 April 2021

3:51pm

Building Combo Swell

Overlapping and building 2-3ft+ E, ESE, ENE combo swell. Light onshore wind. Based on multiple observations, the wind is light but shifty and right now NJ is seeing clean/semi-clean conditions while NY is dealing with onshore wind and poor form. 

Regional Surf Report

NJ

Monmouth and Ocean County 

Waist high+ E combo swell with light onshore wind. At the time of observation, the surf is fun and clean/semi-clean conditions. 

Atlantic and Cape May County 

Waist high+ E combo swell with light onshore wind. At the time of observation, the surf is fun and clean/semi-clean conditions. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details 

 

NY

Queens-Nassau County

Waist high+ E combo swell with light onshore wind. Poor form. 

Suffolk County 

Waist high+ E combo swell with light onshore wind. Poor form. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details  

 

Later Today E combo swell continues to slowly build. Wind is forecast to lighten (<5 knots) and turn SW by mid to late arvo, so conditions should clean up by this evening. Expect the swell to increase with the incoming tide this evening. 

FORECAST ALERT SURF ALERT

E combo swell peaks on Friday but lingers through the weekend.  

Check out the Forecast Alert and 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.

LONG RANGE FORECAST Surf Alert

Plenty of surf next week. Lots of uncertainty with the wind forecast. 

Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.

Water Temp Update  47-49 degrees F. The Atlantic continues to gradually warm up but a minimum of 4/3 hooded chest zip fullsuit and 5mm boots and gloves and hood is required. 

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Buoys

Live swell and wind conditions in real time

44065 (Sandy Hook, NJ and Western Long Island) 

44025 (Long Island/Central NJ)

44091 (Southern NJ)

44066 (Western Atlantic) Offline

Please bookmark these for future reference

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E combo swell builds today

Swell peaks tomorrow

Lingers through the weekend

FORECAST OVERVIEW

RIGHT NOW  Surf Alert, but...

A storm with a pair of cells of low pressure within it has moved directly off the coast, and is sitting directly in our swell window. This system is pumping a building E groundswell toward our region. Simultaneously, there's a frontal system passing over the region (hence the rain and onshore wind), so there's another prefrontal ESE windswell on top of the existing E groundswell. 

LATER TODAY That frontal system will move over the region then ENE and into the Western Atlantic and this should push yet another E swell toward our region. This will make a total of three cells of swell-producing systems sitting directly in our swell window. 

WIND FORECAST Surf Alert As this system passes over, the local winds should gradually lighten by mid arvo then turn SW then W by mid to late arvo-early evening. This will coincide with the incoming tide so it will be wise to monitor your local spot for improving conditions this evening

 

FRIDAY SURF ALERT

All of those systems in the Atlantic will gradually move east but will stay relatively productive, and the added fetch should increase the period of this swell on Friday (and the weekend). The nearshore cell will strengthen further as it moves ENE and the swell from this storm will increase both in size and period, topping off in the 4-5ft range at the east facing spots in NJ. South facing spots in both NJ and NY will see slightly smaller conditions. 

Wind Forecast As the low moves ENE the local wind will swing between WNW and NW for most of the day so I recommend monitoring your local wind conditions

 

WEEKEND FORECAST

SATURDAY and SUNDAY SURF ALERT

As all of the previously mentioned storms move further east into the Atlantic, the E groundswell will drop into the 2-3ft range. There is some uncertainty with the wind forecast but it should be fairly light. Stay tuned. 

Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details.

 

LONG RANGE FORECAST

NEXT WEEK Surf Alert

Watching a large frontal system that is draped across the South that will move into the Atlantic by early next week. Tracking a few weaker systems in the North Pacific that will need to monitored for track and long range potential for surf for our region. 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

THE X-FACTORS

The North Pacific continues to slow down. With fewer and fewer storms dropping out of the Aleutians and Bering Sea, those storms that delivered solid surf through the winter are becoming fewer and fewer. This will result in the reliance on weaker, locally born systems and hit-and-run, short duration swell events. 

Why do we watch the Pacific? During the Late Fall and Winter our region relies heavily on storms that originate in the North Pacific. Some of these storms will travel via the Jet Stream and make their way east and into our swell window. Spring will see an occasional storm that originates in the Pacific, but these storms continue to become fewer as we head closer to Summer.

 

Developing storms in the Western Atlantic. We will continue to watch any system or cell that enters the Western Atlantic for swell potential because the open ocean is s perfect environment for strengthening and development.

Early Season Tropical Activity (i.e. Tropical/Subtropical Storms and Hurricanes) in the Atlantic is not out of the question as things warm up in the Tropics and North Atlantic. Stay tuned. 

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Building surf on Thursday

Peaks on Friday

Fun surf this weekend

THURSDAY Surf Alert

2-3ft+ E, ESE and ENE combo swell with light onshore wind. Wind is forecast to lighten (<5 knots) and turn SW then W by late arvo/early evening. Swell should increase by a foot or so with the incoming tide this evening. 

NJ Waist high+ surf with light onshore but shifty wind now. Fair to sometimes good form (depending on the wind direction).  I would check it after the late arvo tide switch for more size and cleaner conditions. 

NY Waist high surf with onshore wind. Poor form. Things could improve this evening, depending on wind speed. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

FRIDAY SURF ALERT

3-4ft+ overlapping E groundswell with NW or WNW wind. E facing spots in NJ will see the biggest surf. South facing spots (Long Island, NY and Southern NJ) will mostly likely see smaller surf.

NOTE* Wind forecast isn't a slam dunk so monitor your local wind forecast

NJ Waist-chest high+ groundswell with WNW or NW wind. Biggest at east facing spots. 

NY Waist high+ groundswell with WNW or NW wind. (Form will depend on wind direction). 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

SATURDAY SURF ALERT

2-3ft E groundswell with light NW/NNW wind early, turns S but remains light by mid arvo. All spots across the region should remain clean/semi-clean and fun. Smaller on Long Island, NY and south facing spots in NJ. 

NOTE* Wind forecast isn't a guarantee so monitor your local wind forecast

NJ Thigh-waist high+ surf with light NW/NNW wind until turning S by mid arvo but remains light. 

NY Thigh-waist high+ surf with light offshore wind. Good form for most of the day. Wind turns light onshore but shouldn't affect form much.  

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

SUNDAY SURF ALERT

2ft+ E groundswell leftovers with light and variable wind. Swell gradually drops through the day. Should be fun for a longboard.  

NOTE* Monitor your local wind forecast. Best at low to mid tide. 

NJ Knee to thigh high E groundswell leftovers with light wind and good form. 

NY Knee to thigh high E groundswell leftovers with light wind and good form. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

NEXT WEEK Surf Alert

Monitoring two systems for swell potential for midweek. Stay tuned.  

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

THIS FORECAST 

HAS NOT

BEEN UPDATED

LONG RANGE FORECAST

[IMPORTANT NOTE Long Range Forecasts are based on the data at hand but this information is constantly changing. While I do my best to give you the best forecast available, nothing is written in stone and any forecast beyond 72 hours is pure speculation based on the information at hand and is subject to change. I will do my absolute best to update this forecast as the data changes.]

NEXT WEEK 

Stay tuned. 

 

Atlantic

NOTE The North Pacific has dramatically slowed down with storm production, which is predictable for this time of year so we will be relying on storms and frontal systems that will develop over the Mainland US for surf. The Pacific isn't exactly dormant now but it's no longer our primary source for storms. 

MID-SPRING FORECAST

SURF Spring is notorious for consistent surf from two sources, powerful late winter storms that produce powerful surf and weak, seasonal warm fronts that produce weak, locally generated windswell that is common in the summer. 

 

WATER TEMPS Mid Spring is also known for cold but gradually warming ocean and air temps. You should be able to switch from your thick 5mm wetsuit to a 4/3, but it will remain too cold for a 3/2 until about Late May or June. On the warmer days you can probably wear 3mm gloves but recommend wearing 5mm boots. 

 

WEATHER Our region will see mild but cool and gradually warming weather. But expect the occasional storm with extended periods of rain or wet snow and onshore or sideshore wind. However, because this is a period of transition and there should be plenty of surf but expect periods of time when you will have to wait (or drive) for favorable winds. Keep your fingers crossed that the conditions cooperate as we head into summer. 

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