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Detailed Surf Report

and Forecast for NJ

and Long Island, NY

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Friday 18 September 2020

3:17pm

Groundswell Leftovers

Inconsistent 2-3ft E and ESE groundswell leftovers with N wind. South facing spots are your best bet for clean surf but radical tides are making it tricky.

Regional Surf Report

NJ

Monmouth and Ocean County 

Thigh to waist high E and ESE groundswell.  Sideshore wind has made a mess of it.

Atlantic and Cape May County 

Thigh to waist high. South facing spots are cleaner but smaller. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details 

 

NY

Queens-Nassau County

Waist high E and ESE groundswell with offshore wind. Tide issues are making things tricky.  

Suffolk County 

Waist high+ E and ESE groundswell with offshore wind. Tide issues are making things tricky.  

Coaching Schedule Click here for details  

Later Today E groundswell from Paulette continues to gradually drop. New SE groundswell from Hurricane Teddy slowly builds today and tonight. 

FORECAST ALERT (UPDATE)  SURF ALERT Groundswell from Hurricane Teddy continues to build through the weekend.

Check out the Forecast Alert and 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.

LONG RANGE FORECAST SURF ALERT! Groundswell from Hurricane Teddy builds, peaks midweek then lingers through late next week. 

Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.

TROPICAL UPDATE Remember my rants all summer about the peak of Hurricane Season? This is why. See the Tropical Update below for details.

Water Temp Update  72-73 degrees F

Groundswell from Hurricane Teddy gradually builds

through the weekend

Forecast Overview

RIGHT NOW  Surf Alert

We are seeing lingering leftover E and ESE groundswell from the remnants of Paulette and front runner groundswell from Hurricane Teddy. The leftovers will continue to drop and swell from Teddy will slowly being to increase today and tonight. N wind all day so south facing spots are the best option. 

WEEKEND SURF ALERT

The remnants of Hurricane Sally have entered the Atlantic (with an associated frontal system) just off the East Coast. High pressure over the Great Lakes this will expand over New England and Northeast this weekend, setting our region up for breezy N wind. The remnant storm will consolidate and move further south but will remain offshore. NOTE: This storm will be in a location in the Western Atlantic that could allow it to reform into another tropical system.. stay tuned. 

Check out the 72 HOUR SURF FORECAST below for details

 

THE TROPICS HURRICANE TEDDY

SURF ALERT Hurricane Teddy is now a Category 4 storm (wind speeds reached 130 mph today) and is moving directly into our swell window. Swell heights will gradually increase on Saturday then double on Sunday as Teddy gets closer. This storm will be directly offshore (approximately 250 miles out) on Monday and Tuesday so we can expect even more swell on those days and lingering groundswell through the end of next week. Stay tuned. 

Check out the TROPICAL UPDATE  below for details. 

 

LONG RANGE FORECAST Surf Alert 

Groundswell from Hurricane peaks early next week. Stay Tuned. 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

WARNING 

Large surf this weekend and next week.  Increasing littoral and rip currents will create potentially life threatening conditions.

When in doubt, DON'T paddle out. 

Building groundswell from Hurricane Teddy with N

wind this weekend

FRIDAY Surf Alert

1-3ft+ SE and ESE groundswell with NNE wind. Best on Long Island and south facing spots in Southern NJ. E groundswell fades and SE groundswell builds through the day.

NJ Thigh to waist high surf with sideshore wind. Best at south facing spots in the southern half of the state. 

NY Thigh to waist high surf with offshore wind. Slightly bigger further east. Good conditions. Watch for rogue sets and drifty current. 

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

 

SATURDAY SURF ALERT

2-3ft SE groundswell with moderate to strong N wind early. Swell builds to 3-4ft++ by late morning. Wind forecast to turn NE by late arvo/early evening. Expect occasional larger rogue sets as groundswell continues to fill in. Smaller E windswell mixes in. 

WARNING Large surf, strong current and potentially life-threatening conditions are possible as swell builds through the day.

 

NJ Waist high+ surf early with onshore wind and poor form for Monmouth and Ocean County. South facing spots further south will be best. Swell increases to chest high+ by midday. 

NY Waist high+ surf with offshore wind and good to excellent form early. Swell increases to chest high+ by midday. Strong, drifty current.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

SUNDAY Surf Alert, but...

3-5ft SE groundswell continues to gradually increase. E windswell mixes in. The SE groundswell increases to 4-6ft++ through the day. NNE wind for most of the day but expected to turn NE by mid to late arvo. Watch the flags. Strong current expected. 

WARNING Large surf, strong current and potentially life-threatening conditions are possible as swell builds through the day.

NJ Solid chest high+ SE groundswell/E windswell mix. Surf increases into the head high range through the day. Most of the state will see sideshore wind/poor conditions. South facing spots further south will be the call. 

NY Waist to chest high++ surf with offshore wind early. Surf gradually builds into the head high range with good to epic conditions. Wind is forecast to turn NE and that could add texture, but shouldn't blow it out. Strong, drifty current.   

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

NEXT WEEK SURF ALERT

Groundswell from Hurricane Teddy peaks early next week and lingers through mid to late week. Wind forecast to cooperate for NJ by mid week. Be prepared to call in sick.

NJ See below

NY See below 

Check out the LONG RANGE FORECAST below for details.

Coaching Schedule Click here for details

Watching multiple storms

FORECAST

SURF ALERT

Tracking the remnants of Hurricane Sally, which move out of the Gulf of Mexico 72 hours ago and into the Western Atlantic. This storm will be pushed further south by gradually increasing high pressure moving out of the Great Lakes and into New England and into an area that is prime for development. This storm will be watched closely over the next few days. 

Also tracking Hurricane Teddy, now a Category Four storm. Teddy will be a major swell producer over the next 5 to 6 days. Stay tuned. 

See the Forecast Update map above for details. 

 

SEASONAL OUTLOOK: Early Fall 

In terms of potential for solid or at least fun surf this is the most consistent time of year as frontal systems develop and strengthen as they track east across the US. We are also monitoring the entire North Atlantic as the 2020 Hurricane Season fully matures. As opposed to this schizophrenic summer (when we went from pumping to flat to pumping, then flat again) right now is when we watch every single cell of low pressure or frontal system, both inland and in the Atlantic for potential swell producing systems.

 

Put simply... it's on. There are no guarantees but let's hope that this season delivers as it has in the past few years and doesn't create havoc. 

A major swell maker is heading into our swell window now

FULL STORM BREAKDOWN

1. Tropical Depression 22 is in the Gulf of Mexico and has been given favorable odds of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane in the next few days. 

 

2. With sustained winds over 130 mph, Hurricane Teddy is a Category Four Hurricane. Teddy is moving NW at 10 knots and will be in our swell window on Sunday. However, because it's such a powerful storm our region will see frontrunner groundswell from it now and through the weekend. Expect swell numbers to jump up dramatically over the next several days. Yewwwwwwww!

 

3. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette has weakened dramatically and is slowly moving due south from it's current position (230 mile NW of the Azores) but could re-strengthen into stronger storm. Paulette will be monitored closely over the next few days. 

 

4. Tropical Storm Wilfred has top winds around 40 mph and is moving NW at 17 knots. Wilfred is forecast to weaken as it enters an area hostile for development in the Central Atlantic but it's not exactly dead in the water so will be monitored as it continues to move NW and toward our swell window. 

5. This tropical wave has entered the Atlantic Basin and has been given a low chance of development (20%) but it's still early so it's worth watching. 

6. Not mentioned above is Subtropical Storm Alpha. This system is moving NE and will cross over Spain and Portugal over the weekend. 

Keep your fingers crossed for these storms to enter our swell window without making landfall and causing destruction. (For more info see the map above). 

What's absolultey nuts is that we have already gone through the entire alphabet with storm names and we're just halfway through the season.  

 

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