Eyeball Surf Report
Detailed Surf Report and Forecast
for NJ and Long Island, NY
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Tuesday 12 November 2019
Dawn Patrol Update 6:31am
Fun sized SSW windswell mixing with a long-period E & ESE groundswell. WSW wind early. Waves are in the 2-3ft+ range with best form further north in NJ. Wind is forecast to turn NW later and Southern NJ and Long Island, NY should clean up.
Regional Surf Report
MORNING Fun surf with WSW wind. Best in Monmouth and Northern Ocean County
ARVO Wind turns NW and Southern NJ will clean up.
MORNING Messy surf with onshore/sideshore wind
ARVO Wind turns NW and Queens and West Nassau County should see clean surf. Larger and cleaner at spots further east in Suffolk County.
Later Today Wind turns NW and increases after 11am. Swell begins to drop. Southern NJ and parts of Long Island should see improving conditions.
Water Temp Update Water temps are averaging between 57 and 61 degrees. A good 3/2 or 4/3 fullsuit is essential and keep the boots, gloves and hood handy.
FORECAST UPDATE Flat and cold on Wednesday. Minimal surf through the rest of the week Check out the Forecast Update below for details.
LONG RANGE FORECAST Nor'easter in the forecast for next weekend. Check out the Long Range Forecast below for details.
TROPICAL UPDATE Nope... Check out the Tropical Update below for details.
THIS FORECAST HAS
NOT BEEN UPDATED.
Forecast Overview: New swell builds today and tonight
RIGHT NOW There's a large frontal system moving in from the west. This system brings increasing S wind later today as well as building S and SSW windswell tonight.
TOMORROW This same system will bring a fun southerly windswell tomorrow. There is also a building E/ESE groundswell from a strengthening storm in the Western Atlantic. Both of these systems will bring a fun combo swell.
THE GOOD NEWS Tuesday will see fun surf from a combo of short-period S windswell as well as E/ESE groundswell.
THE BAD NEWS If you plan on surfing at all this week, hit it on Tuesday because once this frontal system moves off the coast the offshore wind will knock it flat by tomorrow night and this flat spell is forecast to last into at least Saturday, but...
THE X-FACTOR There's a strengthening storm in the Western Atlantic, southeast of Bermuda that is slowly moving closer to our swell window. This storm is dragging an active frontal system behind it so there will be other cells within that system. If/When this storm moves into position this could potentially change the swell numbers for late week and the weekend. I will keep you posted if there are any developments.
Check out the 72 Hour Surf Forecast below for details.
MORE GOOD NEWS The Pacific is lit up with storms and these storms will inevitably cross into the US and eventually bring more surf to our region.
Attention ProSurf Coaches Clients: SURF ALERT Check your Surf Alert text messages and call your coach to book your sessions.
TUESDAY SURF ALERT
Small, fun ESE swell and SE windswell with light W wind. Wind turns NW and increases after 12pm.
NJ 1-3ft surf with offshore wind. Cleaner surf further south after noon.
NY 1-3ft surf. Wind turns offshore by early arvo. Bigger surf further east.
WEDNESDAY Flat and Cold
A few leftovers (...maybe) but temperatures in the 20's.
FRIDAY Very Small*
*Very small surf in the forecast, pending the status of the storm in the Western Atlantic
NJ *Stay tuned
NY *Stay tuned
THIS WEEKEND See the Long Range Forecast below
Nor'easter in the forecast for next weekend. I will keep you posted.
NJ Stay tuned
NY Stay tuned
Strong Nor'easter in the
forecast for this weekend
Update Tracking a new storm
Another large frontal system will make landfall in the Pacific Northwest this week then is forecast to make its way across the US by this weekend. There is also another system developing in the Western Atlantic. I will keep you posted.
Check out Surfline's Seasonal Outlook HERE
Mid to Late Fall sees fewer tropical storms and hurricanes
Instead we will be relying on cells of low pressure carried by cross-country frontal systems as they cross the US Mainland as well as Nor'easters.
Although we are past the peak of the 2019 Hurricane Season, the Tropics remain active.
Stay tuned and be ready for storms to develop over or make landfall on our region and the surf that results as they pass.
Check the Eyeball Surf Report often for updates
in the Tropics now
Overview: The Season is winding down
There's a weak cluster of thunderstorms in the Atlantic Basin now
This system is entering a hostile environment so development at this time is highly unlikely. I will keep you posted if things change but don't hold your breath.
The 2019 Hurricane Season
There are less than three weeks left. This is the time tropical development is improbable but not impossible. We will monitor the tropics yet the variables required for a storm to strengthen and develop tropical characteristics is very, very low.
Outside of the Tropics we will be watching other sources for swell-producing storms such as cold fronts, strong cells of low pressure and Nor'easters. Any one of these can develop tropical features, as was the case with Melissa.
For the complete Tropical Forecast see the map below:
IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION
The Eyeball Surf Report is a guide to help you score the best surf but we are not responsible for your choices. Don't be a knucklehead. Know your limits and don't put yourself or others in danger. If you aren't prepared for the conditions, don't paddle out. When in doubt, DON'T paddle out.
DISCLAIMER The Eyeball Surf Report is updated as often as possible, schedule permitting. Surf forecasting isn't an exact science. Because of the ever-changing variables involved this forecast is subject to change. I will attempt to stay ahead of those changes and keep you informed.